Friday, October 10, 2008
Get Ready for Dow 6,000
The Dow has tumbled 20% this week, 30% in the last month, and 42% over the last year. This is a full-blown crash -- the worst since 1929. 1987 was the equivalent of eating bad sushi compared to this. But wait! It can worse -- a lot worse. I'm not saying it will, and I certainly hope to God it doesn't, but the chart says we're on our way to 6,000 on the Dow. There is an uptrend line on the Dow that begins in mid-1982 and runs until about 1995 -- this trend line represents a 6% compound annual return. There is another, much steeper trend line running from 1995 to 2008 -- this line represents a 12% compound annual return. It was also completely shattered this week. Annihilated. A technical analyst would look at this chart and predict a high degree of probability that the Dow is headed back to test the 6% trend line, which comes in at roughly 6,000. We had all better hope to God that the 2002 lows at 7,000-ish hold. We had all better also hope that B. Hussein Obama is not elected, because that will make 6,000 a virtual certainty.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment