A former collegue of mine forwarded the below link, which pretty much puts the entire housing/banking/financial crisis in perspective:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH--o
For those of you who still do not understand why and how we got here, strap yourself in and watch. For those of you who have family members who don't understand..well they NEED TO READ THE ANGRY TRADER EVERY DAY!!
Enjoy the weekend, and hopefully we will still be standing on Monday.
--The Angry Trader
Friday, September 26, 2008
Paulson Begs and Congress Tells Him "Suck It!!"
Did you hear last night things got so fucked up that Hank the Tank actually got on one knee and begged Dems and Repuclicans to come together and get the deal hammered out. HE GOT ON ONE KNEE!!!!How could that not send a signal to Congress? How could they still be dragging their feet, putting politics first, Country second??
There has been much debate over the bail out will help or succeed--I am not looking to debate this as I have articulated time and time again that our markets should be a step function of Darwinism....(that means for those of you who believe in Creationism)-that the fittest survive.
All of that being said---the fact that these fucking assholes--all of them--are continuing to allow our banking system to grind to a halt, minute by minute. As we grind to a halt, the rest of the world will as well--
I continue to hear from friends that they are beginning to hoard cash--that the new fear is Depression like: Banks cannot lend, bank machines will not be able to spit out cash and those with foresight to put some cash ($20-50,000) in the mattress will be the ones who will be able to live without as much fear as we fall into a global death spiral.
Scary shit. Really scary shit.
I suggest a grass roots effort to THROW ALL OF CONGRESS OUT OF OFFICE. CONGRESS IS NOT IN IT FOR YOU. THEY ARE IN IT FOR THEMSELVES--THEY COULD GIVE A FAT RAT'S ASS WHAT HAPPENS TO YOU. THEY WILL SIMPLY BLAME THE OTHER PARTY--BLAME THE ELECTION-AND CERTAINLY NOT POINT A FINGER AT THEMSELVES. THAT WOULD BE HUMAN AND HONEST. TWO THINGS THEY ALL ARE NOT.
FUCK I AM PISSED. I AM SO PISSED THAT I AM NOW HOPING THE BANKING SYSTEM FREEZES SO ALL OF CONGRESS CAN BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE.
RIMM Bags Street Again
Well, that makes 2 Q's in a row. First it was Operating Margins last Q, now GM's going lower forever? Many believe now they will never recover--that they are now a simple CE company and margins will continue to compress as they move more and more into the consumer space and specifically target the lower end.
I fully understand this thought process--bagging the street 2 times in a row--that is agregious. Totally Fucking Agregious!!!! I am not asking for management to break Reg. FD but I am asking them to be a bit more transparent so that the street is not blindsided again.
They were a show me stock after last q's disaster. Now they are considered a shit stock, stuck in the doghouse until they can prove margins are not going lower than they just articulated.
That all being said, I do believe the commentary of a landgrab is not only fair, but the only way to win in the end. This (smart phones) is a two horse race now between AAPL and RIMM. NOK is toast--they will be the new MOT--
The reason i feel so strongly about this is that if the company can continue to take share--they will be getting many consumers to move to their platform. Assume a mom buys the new flip pearl. She does not pay for the data plan. At some point she will--my guess is within 6 months. What I see more and more are mom's checking and sending emails in the supermarket or department store check out lines. NOTE: this is a fundamental shift in consumer behavior and that is happening now and will continue to happen.
Consumers will want more, not less--and that means the data plan which is a $29.99/month annuity for RIMM.
The street is not giving the company any benefit of the doubt on this issue as the company has done a miserable job of communicating to the street. It will take time for that trust to be rebuilt. Perhaps if RIMM can actually launch a phone on time, get a few out before Thanksgiving, we can see interest return to the name.
As of now, 12:18pm there have been over 50mm shares traded...or I should say puked out of funds. Selling probably continues for another week or so--at that time with the stock trading at a multiple under 15X on reduced street numbers, it will be a buying opportunity, unless of course they fuck us over again!
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The Next Terror Attack is Coming
This is a re-post from Saturday, but considering what the DHS is saying on their website http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080924RT, it seems more imminent than ever:
I am not being an alarmist here, I really am not. I am a student of history as well as law and finance and what I know is that Al-Qaida likes to do a bunch of small shit around the world before they go after the good ol' USA. So this week we had Yemen, and last night Pakistan.Like I said, I do not think I am being an alarmist nor do I believe I am blowing things out of proportion here.Man I hope Jack Bauer and Craig Wetmore are on the case....Strike that, man I hope Jack Bauer is on the case....
Fighting Words?
Man do I hate being called out—especially from one of my associates—so here is my reply:
I believe in capitalism, without a doubt. That being said, I am in favor of at least attempting to ease the tightness in the credit markets as I fully understand the ramification of being unable to borrow, especially in the near term. I do not want to put an apple cart out on the main drag of my home town. We have seen via the RTC that a bailout by the taxpayer can be a good trade over time. It should be and is a last resort. We have no other options other than an immediate seizure of the financial market as we know it.
That being said, I also believe a free market, (a.k.a. survival of the fittest, is the only market). Yes, many more banks are going to go under. It is inevitable. The current crisis will NOT end with a $700 Billion bailout. But it might mitigate it. History has proven to rear it’s ugly head over and over again and this time is no different. Rather than sitting by idly and watching the market crash at least Hank the Tank and Big Ben are trying to do something to mitigate a crisis they did not make but surely are in the middle of trying to resolve.
As an astute friend (who has been bearish for all the right reasons for the past 2 years…) pointed out to me at last evening’s back to school night, the bailout will NOT save us as housing prices will continue to decline in the near and intermediate term. This should be taken as gospel. However, if we can grease the wheels of the economy, enough to permit business transactions, lending and borrowing we will mitigate the depth of the abyss we are about to enter.
Oh and just to add one more cheery thought---After the bailout comes the deep and prolonged recession.
--The Angry Trader
I believe in capitalism, without a doubt. That being said, I am in favor of at least attempting to ease the tightness in the credit markets as I fully understand the ramification of being unable to borrow, especially in the near term. I do not want to put an apple cart out on the main drag of my home town. We have seen via the RTC that a bailout by the taxpayer can be a good trade over time. It should be and is a last resort. We have no other options other than an immediate seizure of the financial market as we know it.
That being said, I also believe a free market, (a.k.a. survival of the fittest, is the only market). Yes, many more banks are going to go under. It is inevitable. The current crisis will NOT end with a $700 Billion bailout. But it might mitigate it. History has proven to rear it’s ugly head over and over again and this time is no different. Rather than sitting by idly and watching the market crash at least Hank the Tank and Big Ben are trying to do something to mitigate a crisis they did not make but surely are in the middle of trying to resolve.
As an astute friend (who has been bearish for all the right reasons for the past 2 years…) pointed out to me at last evening’s back to school night, the bailout will NOT save us as housing prices will continue to decline in the near and intermediate term. This should be taken as gospel. However, if we can grease the wheels of the economy, enough to permit business transactions, lending and borrowing we will mitigate the depth of the abyss we are about to enter.
Oh and just to add one more cheery thought---After the bailout comes the deep and prolonged recession.
--The Angry Trader
Scare me once…shame on you, scare me, uh uh, you're not gonna scare me again." (Variation on famous "fool me once" gaffed.)
Morning observations: 1.) What's the goddam rush? It took as 10 years to get into this mess, we've known its bad for a year at a minimum, so why are we rushing together a 'package' to end the calamity. What changed since last week, except that our disease of stupidity has led to the failure of a few banks? That's just a symptom of the problem. Treating symptoms is a western approach, while treating internal causes has been cheaper and saved lives for a much longer time. Please stop telling us if it doesn't happen today we are all dead. The darned plan has a 25% approval rating from the American Public. Legislate the will of the people for once. Pick a better plan, now, and that goes for my fellow poster on this page. McLovin hates the plan because its not a plan. It's a big number that assumes you are stupid and will be fooled by big numbers and sets the government up to get bigger yet again. Under-regulation your problem? Torture the people that shamed this country an the middle of their town. Much cheaper and more effective. 2.) If George Bush's name had a D after it, he would be loved. He's acted like a big government liberal for 6 years. Which, by the way, underscores my opinion that liberals don't think for themselves. They just hate anyone with an R after their name. Conservatives, on the other hand, have had it with Bush's big government antics and John Mccain's populist approach. Hmm. Where is the compassionate liberals intellectual honesty now? Probably stuck on Monica Lewinsky's dress, which marks the time the Dem's became a political joke. 3.) Special message for our presidential 'hopefuls:' Please don't do any interviews talking about how you can save the people from themselves anymore. If I need you to save me I will call you. I can't stand how stupid you presume we are when you say these things. Neither of you are going to do anything about the economy because neither of you is smart enough. Nor am I. Nor are the people in DC. Because our economy goes at its own pace. Stop pretending to play econ. God NOW! 4.) The next time George Bush talks about short-selling as an evil practice on national TV, I am going to sue him for being a public nuisance causing irreparable harm to the reputation of the smart people on Wall Street that got this one right. Come on George? Did you stop people from buying GOOG at $200 because it was being manipulated higher? No! Because it wasn't. Nor has WaMu gone down solely because of the will of the evil shortseller. SHORTSELLERS ARE NOT IN THE AXIS OF EVIL!!!!! --McLovin Out!
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