Head Fake?

I think so. It was impressive, the underlying bid that grew louder and louder as the day went on. However, we did not have any banking news that I saw. The tape was way oversold on a short term basis and it was a matter of time before we saw a nice pop. Tomorrow could be as strong--AAPL was damn impressive, as was their guidance compared to many whispers out there.

If we rally again tomorrow, I am looking to put some shorts, press others. There are a shitload of companies in a world of hurt--and underlying fundamentals in this country are not going to be getting better ANY time soon. Look at the change in rhetoric from King Barack. We went from "yes we can!" to "we can if you give me enough time." That nuance change has just begun it's own lifeformesque journey from the bowels of the White House to the media and then to you.

Time. Yep. We are going to be fucked for a long time. I got a buddy that tells me that I am too emotional. No shit--I am. I wish I was not, but at this point aside from a daily shot of lithium...anyway, I digress. My buddy tells me "That things suck but they will get better. This year and certainly next year cannot be any worse than 08."

I think a lot of people subscribe to that thought and I personally hope it to be true. However, I have so many fucking issues to lay out that the text of this particular side rant alone would push the rest of the week's posts straight into the archives.

So my point is that things may not get MUCH worse, but what if they get worse and then they stay that way for say...another 1-2 years? How fucking bad will that suck? NO real demand for 2 years. Massive layoffs. Massive unemployment. Every dollar worth say.....50 cents, Massive FUCKING STAGFLATION. Sorry to cast a pall on the situation--but Houston-there is a problem. A BIG one that is not going away any time soon.

Anyway--that net outcome, stagflation..that is REAL. Hope for a near term recovery...HA!! That if fake as shit.

Believe me...as bad as a period of stagflation would suck, my worst case scenario's are so much worse...so horribly frightening I dare not publish them until some events I am looking for begin to play out. So let's bee hopeful and thankful that this impending period of stagflation is all that it will be. That being said..the next couple of years are really going to suck for global markets and anyone who has a few shekels in the bank (if they will still be in existence in the not so distant future), cause on the back end of this "Great America Revitalization" spending spree (of money we don't have, which will be spent by an administration that is talking SIZE like only drunken sailors would and could) it is going to be worth a whole lot less.

So to bring it full circle, the meat of earnings season is coming up beginning next week. We got much of the good out of the way thanks to AAPL and IBM. Like 5 Gazillion semi companies in one form or another are going to begin to report a pile of shit, then have massive and explosive diarrhia on top of it when they give March quarter guidance. That massive load, that utter disaster is going to be a pretty big weight around the street for awhile and any near term pop is a great opportunity to pick off your most hated companies. Then we get a run on a few more banks and whammo...through the November 20 lows. Kirk, I can't wait to be right.

Think about that. So on that bright spot, time to go walk the dog.

--The Angry Trader

Tomorrow on the blog: How to grow crops and/or raise animals in a sustainable manner to support your family and community. Janie's got a gun. :)

The new ERA of Oxy-morons Starts Today

The WSJ is out with yet another potential government bail-out for the banking industry. The Obama administration, no doubt, planted the article as a feeler to see public response. But given Obama and the money-tree (Holy Cow its Phil Rizzuto...RIP) appear to have no bounds and no checks and/or balances in the new economic team, and the public is brainwashed to believe this is just free money to make them feel better with little to no long-term consequences, a feeler article/idea is just as good as gold these days anyway.

So tonight, when you turn on CSPAN (maybe I am the only loser watching, but whatever) and you see the scare-crow...AKA Nancy P...she will undoubtedly talk about a new bailout as if it were A.) Her Idea and B.) Another example of where Bush failed. (Note to all the blind-folded Democrats that think Bush was a big spender...You have know idea what you are in for with your new fearless leader.)


Meanwhile, the cover of the Journal talks about Obama seeking a new era of "FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY." So his down-payment on RESPONSIBLE is a $2T deficit, which he will then over-tax (ever look at the Laffer Curve Mr. Prez?), which will then lead to a massive revenue short-fall, which will then lead to a another Greenspan era of over-lending to generate the Government's whopping 1.2X multiplier....

And you wanted to be long the dollar? Good one! No, the other countries aren't as bad as us or worse because they accept they are socialists. We keep trying to run a free-market capitalist society in the construct of a socialist fiscal system. That's why Bush failed...Low taxes is a way to speed up the private sector and shrink the government. He tried to lower taxes and spent like a mad-man. Welcome to the era of big Government and the end of what was built in the 80's.

Thanks for pissing me off Mr Journal. I know it's not your fault, but how about an article on Palestinian's bombing Israel 3hrs into a cease fire? Oh, that's Israel's fault too..they shouldn't have worn black suits since Palestinian's hate black.

I AM BACK MOTHERFUCKERS

OK--below you will find several posts. I fully understand being away for 3 weeks--no posts, no commentary, no nothing gets all of you readers up in arms. So FUCK YOU!!! Below you will find enough fodder to keep you busy for a few hours.

--The Angry Trader

Fuck the Gran Bahia Principe Jamaica Resort

Below is a true and accurate picture of the Gran Bahai Prinipe Jamaica Resort--

I love Jamaica--anyone who knows me, well they know why. There is A LOT to do there aside from sitting on the beach eating space cakes.....

S0 when my folks told me that they would take not only my family but my sister's as well...and to Jamaica...I was fucking psyched.

However, a week prior to going I started to read some horrible reviews of the hotel..I mean real disasters. The hotel, the staff, the food...all of it lived up to the SHIT reviews I had read. Fuck. Total disaster. Some low lights for you:

(Above is a true and accurate image of the room we stayed in at the Gran Bahia Principe Jamaica Resort)

• The rooms were big but there was not nearly enough room for 4 of our clothes to fit in the 3 drawers provided. The jacuzzi did not work properly and when turned on, made a sound as if it were about to launch itself out of the bathroom and through the wall.


• Sheets and bed covers skeeved the piss out of me.


• Shower sucked, glass door hanging by a thread from the wall (real fucking safe)


• Low end booze (bottom of barrel)


• Low end food (50% from a can)


• You could not get brewed decaffeinated coffee--only instant!


• No bananas available for 75% of the stay--the rest of the fresh fruit sucked my hairy balls too. No flavor, not ripe. Just a fucking joke.


• Angry, mean staff who had no interest in helping.

• As much money as Iberostar and the Ritz but way less in terms of quality.

So there you go Mr. Hernandez. When we met I told you this was coming you piece of shit. Your hotel is NOT a 5 star resort. Not even close. Remember, the truth is an absolute defense to slander and liable. So suck on that and my fat meat stick you European loser.

Below please find an Angry Trader rant my 10 year old son and 14 year old niece put together after a "memorable" dinner at the high end (LOL) steak house on property:

After getting back from the beach for the day, we were each told by our parents to take a shower, and put on some decent clothes for our hotel restaurant excursion. Our extended family, of fourteen, met at the decided place to converge, and we made our way to the restaurant.

When we finally arrived at the restaurant, we sat down at two separate tables, being the kids table and the adult table, and we waited 45 minutes for a waiter of some sort to take our orders. When the waiter finally decided to make an appearance at our table, we started to order. My cousin and I both ordered the steak, "with a little surprise" on the side, while our younger siblings/cousins each ordered some sort of chicken.

Another grievous 45 minutes later, our food was served. My cousin and I were both starving, so we eagerly began to devour our steaks. As soon as the first bite hit our taste buds, we found that the steak was extremely undercooked, after we had both requested a medium. We notified our parents, and then the waiter as well. He strolled over to our table, just to glance at our meals and say "Yah, mon, dis is da medium, mon." No joke. Because I have a lot of the same characteristics as my dad (The angry trader) I looked at him and responded "I know this is Jamaica, but it's not alright, mon".

On that note, he took our "medium" steaks and left. After waiting an almost reasonable amount of time, the waiter returned with our steaks. Of course, we found that our steaks now resembled pig crap after it had eaten beans.

We quickly put it aside and walked to dessert. just like dinner the pastries were CRAPPY!!! I tried the cheese cake. Apparently in Jamaica its supposed to taste like bread. Obviously i was PISSED. That was the worst meal.(worse than Nero's)

----The Angry Trader Jr. & Skaaay

I have to believe this image was taken on the first day of business. The buildings are only 2 years old but need to be destroyed and rebuilt.

Hero--Chesley B Sullenberger III

Hats off to that stash wearing mother fucker. I don't think anyone could have done a better job. What we saw not only was the human spirit, but the structure and training of our pilots. He is goofy looking but fuck he can put a plane down on a nice stretch of water!! In case you missed the 900 links to some video, here is a nice compilation:


All I have to say are three things about the crash:
1. I could have done it. I swear. It is not something that I am exceptionally proud of but suffice to say I have spent thousands of hours in a form of flight training and it is ALL about going slow, nose up, flaps down.



2. There is no place like New York City. 2 hours post the water landing I was 3 blocks away from the west side where the plane was being taxied to the docks and you could not tell there was anything extraordinary going on. Not a clue. Hats off to the greatest city in the world.

3. It is no wonder that a US AIR plane floated down like that. They carry no food, less fuel and nary a beverage on board. The planes are so old that rather than fixing them, they simply remove broken items--further reducing the load. I am surprised they did not charge the passengers an "exit fee" along with the $2.00/diet coke, $17/bag(including your first and only) to check and $7.00 for a dry bowl of cereal. Hats off to Chelsey, but FUCK US AIR!!!

Shit Can Reid, Send McNab Packing

I don't mention sports a lot here, but fuck it is time for both of these "didn't live up to their full potentials" to get run the fuck out of town.

In case you missed it, the whole team climbed up and into their coach's ass and stayed there lost until the second half. Then after they finally took a lead, McNab led the team back up deep into Reid's ass where nothing can get out.

That just reinforced my opinion that if it looks like shit and smells like shit--it is SHIT.

Fire them and rebuild. It was a joke. I cannot stand by and watch the same miserable shit which basically is an acceptance to be good enough to almost win it all...for another season. Thank God the Phillies won the World Series or we would be missing the biggest small town in the world today (cause the fans would have burnt it to the mother fucking ground).

The End?

Several months ago I forcasted a move much lower in the broader markets only to literally pick the bottom in this near term downtrend. Fuck...that hurt but the move we will see lower is going to hurt a shitload more

S&P 626 folks...we may try to rally to 1000 between now and then, but that is where my chart of truth has been calling this market. What has changed is that lending spreads have come down, and you can get a borrow from the bank. However, everyone's business is so fucking bad right now there is no way that your balance sheet can afford more debt with less cash flow.

Where does that leave us? Right where I told you we would be 5 months ago. At the tail end of the Institutional unwinds, just ahead of the consumer unwind. And as unemployment continues to rise, the consumer unwind will be bigger and take longer than we had previously expected.

Then at some point and I do not know what the catalyst is or will be, but civil unrest is on the horizon. The sheer number of HBS grads who are getting, have gotten or are talking about getting handguns to protect themselves from the impending civil/class war is becoming more than frightening. It will be self fulfilling.

Guns, Gold (delivered) and night vision goggles. That is what I am going to tell Santa I want for Christmas this year.

Fuck Hamas

I get that Israel kills a lot more Arabs than Hamas kills Jews...I get it. The number is on an average year, 10:1. In a year like this, where Israel is unleashing all fucking fury, it will be closer to 50:1. Why shouldn't it be? Would you want to live in fear of your life, ALL OF THE TIME? Bet you say no--even if you still disagree with me.

(Want to see something sick???? Check out the second missile coming in and about to hit the same target. It is the little black pointy thing angled in the sky and about to hit. Total sickness Israeli military style....)

In a nutshell, this is a clear and unequivocal case of one nation being subject to acts of terror--and at times using force still not equivalent to unconditional surrender to try and eliminate the terror elements that have embedded themselves in and amongst their people.


(Here Hamas launches missiles into Israel--
with only the only purpose
of either to terrorize or kill.)

You know it is funny, but more sick that you have a GIANT fucking Palestinian population in Gaza who will not up rise against Hamas and demand from the world--immediate relief and recognition,running water, electricity, paved roads, schools and infrastructure.--They just keep blaming Israel for all of their problems. I am so fucking sick of this bullshit.

Tomorrow is MLK Jr. Day. A national fucking holiday. For a guy who at the time turned the entire world and establishment on it's ear. A national holiday for a black man. Where is the Palestinian's MLK? Where is their Gandhi? Where is any mother fucker who will stand up against the establishment and promote some peaceful solution--one that starts with your neighbor's right to exist--and then one that evolves into peaceful coexistence.

But first the terror must stop. I know you are sick of hearing that. Anyone who lives within 40km of the Gaza border cannot live without fear. Indiscriminate missiles fall from the sky at indiscriminate times never allowing one to live without fear.

Until the terror attacks stop, innocents will die. Innocent Palestinians need to UPRISE against Hamas to end this cycle. If they do not, each little town in Gaza will end up looking like Jenin.

(It is finally time to hunt down and kill every last one of these mother fuckers)