Head Fake?

I think so. It was impressive, the underlying bid that grew louder and louder as the day went on. However, we did not have any banking news that I saw. The tape was way oversold on a short term basis and it was a matter of time before we saw a nice pop. Tomorrow could be as strong--AAPL was damn impressive, as was their guidance compared to many whispers out there.

If we rally again tomorrow, I am looking to put some shorts, press others. There are a shitload of companies in a world of hurt--and underlying fundamentals in this country are not going to be getting better ANY time soon. Look at the change in rhetoric from King Barack. We went from "yes we can!" to "we can if you give me enough time." That nuance change has just begun it's own lifeformesque journey from the bowels of the White House to the media and then to you.

Time. Yep. We are going to be fucked for a long time. I got a buddy that tells me that I am too emotional. No shit--I am. I wish I was not, but at this point aside from a daily shot of lithium...anyway, I digress. My buddy tells me "That things suck but they will get better. This year and certainly next year cannot be any worse than 08."

I think a lot of people subscribe to that thought and I personally hope it to be true. However, I have so many fucking issues to lay out that the text of this particular side rant alone would push the rest of the week's posts straight into the archives.

So my point is that things may not get MUCH worse, but what if they get worse and then they stay that way for say...another 1-2 years? How fucking bad will that suck? NO real demand for 2 years. Massive layoffs. Massive unemployment. Every dollar worth say.....50 cents, Massive FUCKING STAGFLATION. Sorry to cast a pall on the situation--but Houston-there is a problem. A BIG one that is not going away any time soon.

Anyway--that net outcome, stagflation..that is REAL. Hope for a near term recovery...HA!! That if fake as shit.

Believe me...as bad as a period of stagflation would suck, my worst case scenario's are so much worse...so horribly frightening I dare not publish them until some events I am looking for begin to play out. So let's bee hopeful and thankful that this impending period of stagflation is all that it will be. That being said..the next couple of years are really going to suck for global markets and anyone who has a few shekels in the bank (if they will still be in existence in the not so distant future), cause on the back end of this "Great America Revitalization" spending spree (of money we don't have, which will be spent by an administration that is talking SIZE like only drunken sailors would and could) it is going to be worth a whole lot less.

So to bring it full circle, the meat of earnings season is coming up beginning next week. We got much of the good out of the way thanks to AAPL and IBM. Like 5 Gazillion semi companies in one form or another are going to begin to report a pile of shit, then have massive and explosive diarrhia on top of it when they give March quarter guidance. That massive load, that utter disaster is going to be a pretty big weight around the street for awhile and any near term pop is a great opportunity to pick off your most hated companies. Then we get a run on a few more banks and whammo...through the November 20 lows. Kirk, I can't wait to be right.

Think about that. So on that bright spot, time to go walk the dog.

--The Angry Trader

Tomorrow on the blog: How to grow crops and/or raise animals in a sustainable manner to support your family and community. Janie's got a gun. :)