WAKE UP

The pissing match continues with blame for the housing bubble and subsequent economic crisis picking up steam. Pick-up any newspaper and its almost universally believed that its the President's fault. I completely and utterly disagree that this crisis was created and enabled by conservative Republicans, and is far from Wall Street's fault.

Here are a few generally held beliefs about fiscal and social conservatives:

1.) uncompassionate
2.) racist
3.) out-dated
4.) tight with money
5.) selfish and greedy
6.) elitists that believe in trickle down vs. trickle up

Addressed one by one as reasons why the conservative movement couldn't have been responsible

1.) uncompassionate: lending to people to can't afford homes is very compassionate and the opposite of conservative's who believe you should probably earn something before you get it
2.) racist: a lot of the sub-prime lending was to minorities
3.) out-dated: no conservative would support a million different types of exotic financing
4.) tight with money: why would a conservative endorse over-paying for a home?
5.) selfish and greedy: why would a conservative suggest other's get rich?
6.) elitist: no conservative would support such a wide-spread trickle-up method of wealth creation

Take your pick, libs. Either we are the opposite of how you portray us in the media, or you are responsible. Either way, you are wrong and lose again.

SOLD TO YOU!!!!

SOLD TO YOU MOTHERFUCKERS--

THIS BITCH TAPE GOING LOWER--MUCH LOWER--NO RALLY ON THE HOUSE SIGNING THE BILL....NO REASON TO BE LONG.

CAN YOU SAY HELLO TO DOW 8300?

SEE YOU ALL IN HELL.

--The Angry Trader

Sad, but True

Have you ever heard of Douglas Wilder? He was the intelligent, competent, and extremely well-respected governor of Virginia from 1990 to 1994. He is also black. In fact, he was the first black to be elected the governor of any U.S. state. The story of how Douglas Wilder won a gubernatorial election in a former slave state is extremely interesting because of the fact that although he was leading the polls by double digits heading into Election Day, he ended up winning a very close race (only 1 percentage point separated him and his Republican opponent when all was said and done). See, it turns out that many Virginian whites, when they were asked who they would vote for in the upcoming election, replied "Douglas" because they were afraid to be seen as rascist. But when it came time to actually cast their votes, they just didn't feel comfortable voting for a black man. This is sad -- unbelievably sad -- but true.

Douglas Wilder was infinitely more qualified to be the Governor of Virginia than Barack Obama is to be the President of the United States. Although the latest polls show Obama ahead by 4-6 percentage points, it is a virtual certainty that McCain will win unless Obama has established a gigantic lead by Election Day. So libs, prepare yourselves for a giant disappointment. Turns out there are enough rednecks out there to sway this election in a much different direction than the polls might suggest.

In the immortal words of Ty Webb, "This isn't Russia...is this Russia?"

Courtesy of UK Telegraph:

Lieutenant Vitaly Efremov took the modern approach to complaining after becoming frustrated with the state of his accommodation near St Petersburg.

His video incurred the wrath of army leaders after it was posted on RuTube – the Russian version of YouTube – and he has now been posted to Ussuriysk, a windswept Siberian town best known for its production of vodka, mink fur skins, coal and soap.

Lieut Efremov made his video in the style of US rapper Eminem's letter to a frustrated fan, Stan.

His version is a letter to the Russian defence minister, Anatoly Serdyakov, in which he complains about everything from broken showers and dilapidated barrack rooms to faulty equipment and poor pay.

Dear Hollywood celebrities and other assorted uber-wealthy Marxist lemmings: take your head out of your ass and acknowledge the fact that the United States is the greatest country in the history of the world. Or move to Russia (God knows you all seem to be get teary eyed every time someone mentions your beloved Soviet Union) -- if you ranted like spoiled little jerks in Russia the way you do in the U.S., they'd send you to Siberia. Seriously, please move there -- then we wouldn't have to listen to your juvenile political tirades anymore.

Just Wondering--Could it have Happened?

Could it have happened? Each President has the same shit eating grin on their faces......hmmmmmm......

p.s. that is PELOSI with JFK.

Poor Jean Claude

We at The Angry Trader would like to offer our condolences to Jean Claude Trichet, head of the ECB, for he has been charged with the impossible task of trying to please every member of that retarded economic gorilla known as the European Union. "Jean Claude, Jean Claude," cry the Italians, French and Spanish, "please, please cut interest rates! Our economies are falling off a cliff!" Jean Claude would love to help them, but the ECB's single mandate for maintaining price stability was crafted by old guard Bundesbankers who see the inflation boogeyman at every turn! In fairness to the Germans, they did take it in the ass from the French at the Treaty of Versailles and were subsequently left with a Banana Republic known as the Weimar which broke all records for hyperinflation (although Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwean shitshow is giving it a run for its money!). The Germans will not tolerate a rate cut for fear of second round inflation effects, which is a fancy way of saying that the Germans are are happy that they will be the last of the EU member countries to get sucked into a deflationary black hole. But I digress...we were lamenting poor Jean Claude's plight! He held rates steady today at 4.25% because unlike the Fed he is not charged with the dual mandate of maintaining price stability and encouraging healthy economic growth. No, Jean Claude has one mandate -- fighting inflation -- and he has fulfilled his duties faithfully in that regard. Problem is, the market has figured out that the Eurozone economy is being flushed down an even bigger, deeper shitter than the one swallowing the U.S. economy and they have sent the EUR on what may prove to be just the first leg of its journey to the ash heap of history. Milton Friedman predicted back in 1999 that the EU -- and the EUR -- would likely not survive its first real recession. We're about to find out if the father of modern economics is as sharp as we think he is. Poor Jean Claude knows, of course, that a weaker EUR is inflationary, so he may even be hiking rates soon -- after all, EUR/USD vaporized a 7-year uptrend line today! Parity, here were come! To paraphrase that commie-coddling prick Edward R. Murrow, "Goodnight, Europe -- and good luck!"

Imagine if Nancy Pelosi had to take a polygraph...

Let's imagine, just for shits and giggles, that we could force Nancy Pelosi to take a polygraph in front of the entire nation (as an aside I note that Fox is clearly the only network that would broadcast it since ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN are too busy blowing Obama). Here are five questions I'd ask her:

1. Do you or do you not hope that the economy completely collapses before Election Day?
2. Was that "this is all Bush's fault" speech that you gave before the House voted on the bailout package designed to piss the Republicans off so much that they would kill the bill and prolong the credit crunch?
3. Is it more important to you to do whatever it takes to get Obama elected than it is to do something to help the millions of Americans who are struggling to feed their kids and pay the mortgage?
4. Would you be okay having someone -- anyone -- murdered if it guaranteed that Democrats would take the White House and keep control of Congress?
5. Do you find it as terrifying as I do that you are 3rd in line for the Presidency?

Does anyone really doubt that a "No" answer to any of these questions would result in the red light going off?

Just Don't Do It!!

Here is the list of Senators who voted NO to the bailout package:

Allard (R)Barasso (R)Brownback (R)Bunning (R)Cantwell (D)Cochran (R)Crapo (R)DeMint (R)Dole (R)Dorgan (D)Enzi (R)Feingold (D) Inhofe (R)Johnson (D)Landrieu (D)Nelson (FL) (D)Roberts (R)Sanders (I)Sessions (R)Shelby (R)Stabenow (D)Tester (D)Vitter (R)Wicker (R)Wyden (D)

The Irish balk on a Guiness and Take Action

Apparantly the Irish were not drunk earlier in the week as their legislature put their glasses overflowing with Guinness down to implement a backing of debt and deposits in their banks.

This immediately put the Germans in a bad way, bad mood and in a new fight with France. Shocking--France and Germany fighting. What is funny to me is that culturally nothing has changed in Europe since WWII. Think about it. Proud Germany will not accept defeat, will not speak of it and does not even want to hear about it. On the other hand, the French, the biggest pussies on the planet, were very quick to call for a rescue package for smaller EU nations. How funny is it that; as fast as they (the French) can waive a white flag, they do. Nice job boys, now go take a shower--and use some soap!!

As much as things change, they stay the same.

--The Angry Trader

Memo to Europe: You're Even More Irrelevant Now Than You Were in 1945

We are shocked -- SHOCKED -- to report that Europeans have declared that the era of U.S. economic might is over. Der Spiegel, in an entirely predictable fit of gleeful arrogance, has this to say in today's edition:

America Loses Its Dominant Economic Role
The banking crisis is upending American dominance of the financial markets and world politics. The industrialized countries are sliding into recession, the era of turbo-capitalism is coming to an end and US military might is ebbing. Still, this is no time to gloat.

No time to gloat??? What the fuck could you ass holes possibly have to gloat about??? After scolding Americans only a week ago for the "impropriety and greed" that caused our current financial crisis, you woke up Monday morning to eat the following giant shit sandwich on Page 1 of the Wall Street Journal: "Fears Over European Banking System Escalate". Let he who is without exposure to mortgage-backed securities cast the first stone, you morons. Has it ever occurred to you that there's a reason that the Euro has lost 20 big figures vs. the Dollar in less than two months??? It's because U.S. and Japanese investment funds (which singlehandedly account for more than 50% of global investment flows) are scratching, clawing and punching each other in the nuts in an effort to not be the last rat off the sinking Eurozone ship. That's right, your economy is totally, unequivocally fucked. You have created a socialist Leviathan in the EU that leaves you with zero flexibility on the monetary and fiscal policy levers. Meanwhile, your idiot Bundesbanker wannabees seem to be convinced that Germany is on the verge of Weimar-like hyperinflation. Spain, Italy, Ireland and France, among others, are screaming bloody murder for a rate cut yet Jean Claude Trichet can't do a thing about it without having nightmares about waking up with the head of a Lipizzaner stallion in his bed. Oh yes, our Teutonic friends learned a lot from their Italian comrades during the years of the Axis Alliance!

So here's my prediction: within 10 years, the Euro will be history. Say hello once again to the Deutche Mark, Franc, Lira, Peso and -- my favorite of all -- the Irish Punt! The EU, and the Euro, were ostensibly created to provide an economic "counterweight" to the U.S. Nice work boys, you've instead ended up with a retarded Frankenstein who is going to do nothing but drool deflationary spit all over your precious "united front". Furthermore, EUR/USD is going back to parity within the next two years. The world has been so hypnotized by the Leftist media's constant refrain of "America and the Dollar are finished!" that most investors are convinced that this Dollar rally is a temporary blip on way to 1.75. Wrong, lemmings. The U.S. remains the safest place in the world to have your money. We have the largest, most dynamic, most flexible eoncomy in the world and that is not going to change. Europe, prepare for stagnation -- but by all means feel free to call on us when the next flaming anti-Semitic megalogmaniac murderous prick takes control of one of your countries because you can't break free of your deflationary spiral. We'll come save your ass again, because that's how we roll.

Our Country is SOOOO on the Decline

So forget about Congress, the President and "the bailout". Here is an issue that will help continue to drag this nation down the shit bowl.

Apparently a 5 year old brought a bag of weed to kindergarten yesterday. KINDERGARTEN. Are you fucking kidding me?? Here is the link for those of you who think I am making this shit up: http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x436986720/Boy-5-brings-bag-of-marijuana-to-school

Not only that, but apparently the teacher found out when she overheard another student saying that so and so had “a bag of weed with him". I understand weed is easier to say than marijuana, but fuck--how does a 5 year old know this slang term??

It is called horrible parenting.

Now keep your eyes on the number of high scholars going to rehab because of their heroin addiction. Apparently one of the key benefits from bombing Afghanistan is that by removing the Taliban, we have once again opened the poppy floodgates.

So now you have an influx of cheap heroin into the country. It is so cheap that kids are getting their hands on it, I know this as fact. I live in a nice neighborhood with excellent schools. The town high school has an ongoing heroin problem. I plan on telling the school board that if they do not put undercover cops in the schools, I will contact the local and national papers (I live close enough to NYC for the Times to care). --What else can I do but humiliate and out the School Board and town government????

So go home and make your kids pee in a cup. You don’t have to test it. Just send them the message that you are watching.

--The Angry Trader.

The First of Several, "Why I Can't Vote For McCain"

This is for real:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbQwAFobQxQ

This is the spoof:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/27/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-k_n_129956.html

One failed heartbeat away, and believes in Creationism.

Enough said, sadly.

--The Angry Trader

The British Jumper Does Not Count!

So for weeks now, actually months, I have been looking for my “jumpers”. By “jumpers” I mean anyone in financial services, most especially Wall Street types who either jump out of their office building windows, jump off a bridge or jump in front of a moving vehicle.

So you can imagine the influx of IM’s, emails and other forms of contact that I received today highlighting that Kirk Stephenson, COO of Olivant Advisors, leapt in front of a 100mph moving express train in Berkshire UK this morning.

Sorry, that doesn’t count. Well, actually it counts as 1/3 of an American jumping—under the thesis that Americans are better and tougher than Europeans, so for every 3 European jumpers, that should equate to 1 American.

I still need 3. Any takers? 3 to me would signal a bottom. At least it would signal we are close to a bottom. Again, any takers? I still need 3.

Oh—if you ever wondered what it would be like getting hit by a speeding train, feel free to click on the following link-- http://www.nothingtoxic.com/media/1148988411/Woman_Gets_Hit_by_a_Train

—and get your barf bag ready before you hit play.

--The Angry Trader.

Its Unfair Now

I have always been of the mindset that Wall Street was ALWAYS FAIR. Right now I feel like the dice have been switched behind our back and I don't want to play anymore.

Sure, the market has never been easy by any means. If it was easy a.) we wouldn't have to work so hard to get it right b.) we wouldn't get paid as much as we do for what we do and c.) everyone else would be doing it. However, its always been gameable. You could stack the odds in your favor, follow a discipline (like shorting the incessant bottom calling I have heard over the past year), and get it right 6 out of 10 times and realize that puts you in the top quartile of all investors.

But now? I can't take it. I'm not panicking by any means. I just realize, there is suddenly no edge. You think you have a good read on something and it fits your discipline and you feel good about it and you get it right, from a fundamental standpoint. But before the market opens the next morning, Paulson takes a dump, Bush hiccups, and suddenly you are down 20% on a trade.

I haven't traded much over the paast 7 weeks (two trades total, to be exact, and in the same stock.) Capital preservation is really the only approach that works right now. But I am certain I am not alone in the "its actually unfair for the first time in my life" mindset. I just hope enough people hang in there to make it through this period with the goal of coming out on top of the next cycle.

Otherwise, I have a long and lonely career ahead of me in an industry that will be more regulated than Teach forAmerica. Maybe trader will be the G-1 pay levels, and CEO will be G-4 with a nice post retirement benefit accrual. Who know's? But either way, seeing Goldman and Morgan Stanley bent over like little kids and told to take deposits (do you really think it was Goldman's idea to make that move? I don't), made me feel like a prisoner of my government with a capped wage coming.

A Bailout by Any Other Name...

Can you believe there is still talk on what to call this stupid bailout package? Is it a bailout? Or an asset transfer? Invest in America Plan? I am seething with the latter, Invest in America? Reminds me of Operation Iraqi Freedom, or the Dept of "Homeland Security," which was just another bureaucratic layer to do the job the CIA and FBI didn't.

Moving along....

The text of the "I took out a stupid mortgage and my real-estate agent ripped me off and my government mortgage company stopped working with prudence and my investment banker capitalized...'PLAN,' known to the uninitiated as the Invest in America plan, is now readily available and we can all vote tomorrow on whether we, the American Citizen, want to fund it. Oh, strike that. We really don't have a say.

Is it that much to ask that in 2008 we can somehow capture the consensus of the American people and if there is something like 2/3 against the largest bailout in history, maybe we reconsider?

Back to the text:

1.) We are establishing yet another layer of crap in Washington. This time, its called "Office of Financial Stability." Listen closely....financial stability is GREAT, but its not the goal of a free market economy. So like I have said before, you can't have a capitalist system in the the context of a socialist government. No commingling, they don't work.

2.) "Designating Financial Institutions as Agents of the Government." These banks might as well go private. No shareholder in their right mind would invest in a business that has a government agency pulling the strings. The government is not good at making money, and no, I highly doubt the packaging of this package, with the "we can actually make money from this plan," will play out. And even if the government does make money from this plan, are you expecting a check in the mail? Let me know when it comes.

3.) "Prevent unjust enrichment of financial institutions." This statement alone is going to make it harder for people to get rich in America, which takes away from the American Dream. Because, and quote me on this, at some point over the next 10-years we are going to see some guy who comes up with a great way to make money on Wall Street in court debating how to define "unjust." I recently saw a 15 page court document with a summary ruling discussing the meaning of pollutant with respect to a power plant proposal. And, do you all remember in 2002 when we sat there waiting for the SarBox CEO sign-off deadline? "Oh no, how many CEO's will be unwilling to certify their financials?" (Actually, that last point has nothing to do with anything in point 3, but I wanted to throw it in there. It does highlight, however, that government intervention has never done anything but create more government jobs and cost you and me more money...)

My only question is whether I should go buy a home today and not make the payments? That's what this bill incetivizes the innocent to to do because its our only way to cash in on the "I took out a stupid mortgage and my real-estate agent ripped me off and my government mortgage company stopped working with prudence and my investment banker capitalized...'PLAN.'


Why are we all so distracted from recognizing one very important truth that no plan could possibly attack; until home prices stop going down, banks are going to keep shrinking their balance sheets. And when balance sheets shrink, less capital is created and less consumption and investment take place.

So, short of California sinking (start with Berekely please), I don't expect any near-term event that is going to stop the unwind of irrational exuberance in home valuations. Sorry. By the way (and don't get annoyed, I am a big ITS NEVER DIFFERENT GUY), this is no different than what plagued Motorola. They needed a new phone. Not a new CEO. Not a new acquisition. And not a divestiture. A new phone to follow up on the RAZR saves MOT. Anything short is just, to quote Barack Obama, lipstick on a pick.