RIMM Bags Street Again

Well, that makes 2 Q's in a row. First it was Operating Margins last Q, now GM's going lower forever? Many believe now they will never recover--that they are now a simple CE company and margins will continue to compress as they move more and more into the consumer space and specifically target the lower end.

I fully understand this thought process--bagging the street 2 times in a row--that is agregious. Totally Fucking Agregious!!!! I am not asking for management to break Reg. FD but I am asking them to be a bit more transparent so that the street is not blindsided again.

They were a show me stock after last q's disaster. Now they are considered a shit stock, stuck in the doghouse until they can prove margins are not going lower than they just articulated.

That all being said, I do believe the commentary of a landgrab is not only fair, but the only way to win in the end. This (smart phones) is a two horse race now between AAPL and RIMM. NOK is toast--they will be the new MOT--

The reason i feel so strongly about this is that if the company can continue to take share--they will be getting many consumers to move to their platform. Assume a mom buys the new flip pearl. She does not pay for the data plan. At some point she will--my guess is within 6 months. What I see more and more are mom's checking and sending emails in the supermarket or department store check out lines. NOTE: this is a fundamental shift in consumer behavior and that is happening now and will continue to happen.

Consumers will want more, not less--and that means the data plan which is a $29.99/month annuity for RIMM.

The street is not giving the company any benefit of the doubt on this issue as the company has done a miserable job of communicating to the street. It will take time for that trust to be rebuilt. Perhaps if RIMM can actually launch a phone on time, get a few out before Thanksgiving, we can see interest return to the name.

As of now, 12:18pm there have been over 50mm shares traded...or I should say puked out of funds. Selling probably continues for another week or so--at that time with the stock trading at a multiple under 15X on reduced street numbers, it will be a buying opportunity, unless of course they fuck us over again!