So we reached and broke through 8300 today, have traded around that number for a good while now....so now what? I frankly am not willing to call a bottom today.
I did have the opportunity to speak to some relatively senior people at some long only funds today, basically trying to see if there was any "plan" at these shops in terms of lines in the sand to buy etc....
Unfortunately, I did not get any answers that gave me the slightest twinge of the warm and fuzzies. Quote of the day came from one PM, "we don't have a plan in place. We have nothing."
That is fucking scary....these are the guys who have been on the sidelines and are supposed to stabilize the tape with their inflows of cash on the sideline. Apparently, the redemption side of e that equation continues to win the daily battle. With that, I will put my neck on the line and say if by next Tuesday we do not have an additional major leg down, we are fucked for the rest of the year--and well into 09! A rally will cause short covering and prevent the "purge." However, if we can really purge between now and Tuesday's close....we will have put a bottom in place, at least in the n/t. That would mean at least an 800 point rally in the Dow, in my estimation.
We shall see...and in the mean time, go get some kevlar, a helmet, new seat belt and a load of cash...these are some strange days indeed.
Friday, October 10, 2008
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