I noticed a famous market pundit who may or may not have their own show on CNBC in addition to writing for a public media company say its "time to buy the dips?" What dips? The dips we got over the past two weeks when said pundit was saying that if you need money in the next 5-years move to cash? The dip's that occurred while said pundit was calling for a much lower than 8K Dow?
Why we rallied:
-- mark-ups
-- expiration
-- end of liquidations
-- Libor/10yr yield
-- Last week's TARP spend
-- China loosening monetary base
Why I think we stall and retest:
-- dearth of news flow coming
-- post election malaise
-- end of mark-ups
-- dismal 4Q coming
-- energy prices rebounding
-- sudden willingness to buy exposes the lowest common denominators
-- all of the recent performance was a last hour phenomena, not indicative of healthy sustainable buying, but marking up, short-desks cleaning up margin by 3PM EST
What could happen differently?
Now that 3Q reporting is winding down, buybacks can begin in earnest with quiet periods ending.
Would rather sell the strength than buy the dip at 9K, and will say the opposite again at 8K. See ya there.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
real original
THE WHOLE STREET IS BEARISH - EVERY HEDGE FUND HAS A LOT OF CASH - DUUUUHHH THINGS SUCK WE KNOW THIS ALREADY -
did you not notice my "i will say the opposite at 8K comment?"
investor polls all back bullish right now, not making a crash call, read more than 1 of my comments please before grilling me and see in early/mid oct when i said if you get short, you will get ur ass handed to you.
just calling for a pullback following 1K point move higher, and saying its not time to buy dips, but sell strength and reposition to get long again for the next bounce.
Post a Comment