In the midst of the meltdown in the summer I heard that the market would be up this year because "people don't want it to be down because they don't get paid in down market."
Then, I heard that the stronger dollar and lower oil prices were going ignite a big rally.
How STUPID.
We rallied for 5 straight years on the back of a weakening dollar and rising crude. Rising crude reflects strong global growth, and rest assured that if crude moved to $100 right now, it would bring the market with it because its a sign of economic health around the globe.
The dollar has essentially be in decline vs. the Euro since introduction, with the exception of the first year or so.
How can a Wall Street professional make such unsubstantiated claims? Because it's not their money, it's yours.
I am so sick of idiots that one off everything to death and don't get called on it. Now I am calling people on it.
Next time we rally, watch the price of crude.
A few years ago when oil started its massive move higher, it was commonplace for headline to come out and say "stocks sink on rising oil" etc. I did some regression work and found that day to day, oil and stocks are uncorrelated. Over a 12-month period? 70% correlated.
I did all that and didn't curse once.
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