I have always been of the mindset that Wall Street was ALWAYS FAIR. Right now I feel like the dice have been switched behind our back and I don't want to play anymore.
Sure, the market has never been easy by any means. If it was easy a.) we wouldn't have to work so hard to get it right b.) we wouldn't get paid as much as we do for what we do and c.) everyone else would be doing it. However, its always been gameable. You could stack the odds in your favor, follow a discipline (like shorting the incessant bottom calling I have heard over the past year), and get it right 6 out of 10 times and realize that puts you in the top quartile of all investors.
But now? I can't take it. I'm not panicking by any means. I just realize, there is suddenly no edge. You think you have a good read on something and it fits your discipline and you feel good about it and you get it right, from a fundamental standpoint. But before the market opens the next morning, Paulson takes a dump, Bush hiccups, and suddenly you are down 20% on a trade.
I haven't traded much over the paast 7 weeks (two trades total, to be exact, and in the same stock.) Capital preservation is really the only approach that works right now. But I am certain I am not alone in the "its actually unfair for the first time in my life" mindset. I just hope enough people hang in there to make it through this period with the goal of coming out on top of the next cycle.
Otherwise, I have a long and lonely career ahead of me in an industry that will be more regulated than Teach forAmerica. Maybe trader will be the G-1 pay levels, and CEO will be G-4 with a nice post retirement benefit accrual. Who know's? But either way, seeing Goldman and Morgan Stanley bent over like little kids and told to take deposits (do you really think it was Goldman's idea to make that move? I don't), made me feel like a prisoner of my government with a capped wage coming.
Sure, the market has never been easy by any means. If it was easy a.) we wouldn't have to work so hard to get it right b.) we wouldn't get paid as much as we do for what we do and c.) everyone else would be doing it. However, its always been gameable. You could stack the odds in your favor, follow a discipline (like shorting the incessant bottom calling I have heard over the past year), and get it right 6 out of 10 times and realize that puts you in the top quartile of all investors.
But now? I can't take it. I'm not panicking by any means. I just realize, there is suddenly no edge. You think you have a good read on something and it fits your discipline and you feel good about it and you get it right, from a fundamental standpoint. But before the market opens the next morning, Paulson takes a dump, Bush hiccups, and suddenly you are down 20% on a trade.
I haven't traded much over the paast 7 weeks (two trades total, to be exact, and in the same stock.) Capital preservation is really the only approach that works right now. But I am certain I am not alone in the "its actually unfair for the first time in my life" mindset. I just hope enough people hang in there to make it through this period with the goal of coming out on top of the next cycle.
Otherwise, I have a long and lonely career ahead of me in an industry that will be more regulated than Teach forAmerica. Maybe trader will be the G-1 pay levels, and CEO will be G-4 with a nice post retirement benefit accrual. Who know's? But either way, seeing Goldman and Morgan Stanley bent over like little kids and told to take deposits (do you really think it was Goldman's idea to make that move? I don't), made me feel like a prisoner of my government with a capped wage coming.
1 comment:
What would you do if the KYD (currency) was allowed to float if this bailout went through?
The only other answer is to send PAulson to China and start sellign those slot machines for that bailout money.
Why should we just GIVE it to them for fucking up?
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