The Puppet Masters

Perhaps I am stating the obvious...

I am so sick of the liberals and their tiresome banter about how suave, sophisticated and eloquent Mr. Obama is. I am sick and tired of hearing what a great job he is doing since taking office. I am sick and tired of hearing how it all is George W.'s fault.

The reality is, this administration is walking the mother of all fine lines. While they struggle to maintain their balance, they continue to masterfully orchestrate the greatest mind fuck and puppet show of all times.

Listen--as my long time friend, P.B. told me this Saturday night over some authentic Soprano Country Italian, "Bernanke, Obama, Geithner.....I bet they all did great in school and did great on their SAT's. However, between the 3, they have no idea how to run a business, let alone handle the finances of the economy." I could not agree more. Book smart--is not going to bring us out of this--what is will be a true understanding of cause and effect coupled with a real fiscal and monetary policy.

The most simple fact is printing money, NOT creating net new jobs, and rising inflation will ALL combine to cripple this country and our economy over the next several years.

Let me ask you this, sports fans: Do you feel that our financial crisis is over? I bet at least half of you do...in fact...this will be the new pole set forth on the right side of this posting. Let me point out that this author answers the aforesaid question with a resounding "NO."

look at the putz above, being harassed by middle aged women! Schmuck!!

Let me explain why:

1. On Friday, that genius and voting member of the FOMC, Janet Yellen commented: while buying MBS and US Treasuries got off to a good start with yields heading lower, "there is a lot that central bankers don't know about the magnitude and duration of the effects of these policies." Moreover, she commented, "our standard monetary policy models do not incorporate financial frictions that lead to asset purchases having real effects."

The genius, Yellen, continued by saying, "we lack both the data and theory to provide strong guidance on these policies" and "we are sailing in uncharted waters, marking our maps with every bit of information along the way." HUH?? Are you kidding me?


This has to be a CLASSIC example of being "book smart" and then being unable to translate that skill set into being effective at your job. "Uncharted waters, and marking the maps along the way?" How many ships were wrecked in the 1400-1800's by sailing into uncharted waters? Answer: A shitload. The statements from Yellen, a Fed voice piece, clearly are beginning to highlight that they need to back off assertions of a real turn around. This is a classic hedge being put in place so that if things turn south again, they can fall back on the "we tried all we could but we are in uncharted waters" commentary. What a pathetic joke.

This had me upset Friday evening and all day Saturday. Then in the NYT yesterday a very interesting piece showed up in the OP/ED section: It was called, "The Economy is Still at the Brink."

more kool-aid tim? sure mr. bernanke! you're my hero!!!!
This was extremely insightful and highlights how the Administration is making you feel good with their commentary but has done little to nothing in terms of really changing the landscape to foster growth and recovery. The authors point out the following:

1. All of the Government programs (TALF, PPIP and the stress tests) all appear as if they were designed to cover over or prop up a system that has clearly failed. The new systems will save the banks and other financial institutions that are rooted in the cause of the near systemic failure of the financial system. The authors point out that during a period of deflation (we are in one now) any recovery will come by restoring the confidence of the people at the bottom of the pyramid, not the CEO's at the top. There has been nothing done for Joe the Plumber. Rather, the Government saved, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Citi.

2. This leads to consumer confidence: There will be no confidence, as I have articulated repeatedly, until jobs are found and mortgages can be paid. We are a long way off from accomplishing either of those tasks. Moreover, do not let last week's unemployment numbers fool you into a false sense of security. The numbers had some funky tweaking in them and most importantly, a loss of 350,000 jobs does not mean ANYONE is finding new employment. Expect unemployment to break above 10% by the end of the summer.


3. FEDERAL officials and leaders are deciding who shall live and who shall fail in an economic environment that just highlights the unfairness and favoritism that is pervasive in the D.C/Wall Street back rooms.

4. Most interestingly to this author is the point the NYT article makes about the need for "experienced traders--not hothouse flowers--who design incentives that will encourage the market to have buyers and sellers determine asset valuations, not the Government."

This all sounds shockingly similar to my friend P.B's comments Saturday evening. It also gives me no confidence that the Administration can continue to walk this fine line while orchestrating every move of the puppet. It is inevitable that the puppet masters end up having all of their perfect strings become knotted, leaving the puppet to collapse on stage. I hope you have your flack jacket on when that shit hits the fan.

--The Angry Trader.