Now What???

That is right, now what? We have had a nice little rally here, the fed has shot it's load with no more rate cuts, oil is going to $22.........have we found a bottom? Was November it and we are finally in the last 3 innings of this bloody game? I don't think so.

This IS what I think:
Oil is going to $22 because the world economy has just come to a screetching halt JUST. That does not mean we are out of the woods yet. We are going to sit here, like helpless mother fuckers for a long time. Credit will continue to be tight for those with credit scores under 680. Those same poor folks are also the ones with MASSIVE credit card debt and all they are going to be able to do is basicly pay that down for the next 2-3 years.

What does that mean for corporate earnings? It means they will fucking suck. The whole trade over the last few weeks has been the great white hope for a 2H09 turnaround. There will be one. It is impossible for there not to be one. Inventories are going to 0 soon.

The back half of 09 will disappoint those looking for a tech snap back. We heard from ATHR last week, saying notebooks and netbooks are piling up. That is fucking scary. That was the last hope for the computing space. Netbooks were the new growth area. OOOOPPPPPSSSSS. Listen carefully. You can hear the air out of those expectations starting to leak out. I am expecting that balloon to be flying the fuck around bigtime, by the end of Q1. If you drive your inventory to 0 you will have to order to restock. But if you order only 5 replacements instead of 30 last year, everyone is fucked. Everyone is fucked.

Buy Infastructure plays cause Obama gonna spend mo than yo momma with yo daddy's paycheck. This motherfucker is going to spend like a drunken sailor off the boat for the first time in 6 months. His pussy and rum are going to be domestic infastructure and creating a green economy. Find some companies with big US exposure and buy them after the 20th of January. The whole hedge fund community now is long these pigs. They are all on the same trade which means they will not work. When these geniuses unwind, get long. You can own them for the next 4 years. Obama has some big fucking plans.

Smartphones is where it is at. Unit numbers from RIMM and prior to that AAPL showing real demand for next generation handsets. That in the face of the industry taking next year numbers down. Hmmmmmm. That is an interesting dichotomy. There is no rush to own either name, but if the tape corrects as I believe it will in late Q1, you will get your shot to own them both at better prices.

And last, Somali Pirates will continue to steal headlines. Have you noticed how much I love these guys? They just ransomed off a booty of guns and munitions for a more than $10mm. That is fucking sick. Despite some bad outcomes with recent run in's with the Indian and other International naval vessels, getting $10mm for a ship, well that is NOT going to deter them from sticking with it. Can I get an ARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH??



---The Angry Trader.