Ride the Rally...McLovin flips stance

I told you all to sell stocks. That's right, and even after 1K points up in 2 days, I am still right. But I am changing my posture now.

Simple rule of investing:
Figure out which way most people will look stupid, and assume they will do their best to live down to your expectations.

Right now, I figure everyone is worried about getting the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip. Look at 'em, they panicking. So said Billy Ray Valentine, and so says McLovin.

All kidding aside. The logical move here, with 6 of the past 7 bailouts providing a one day rally, as we had yesterday on the Citi bailout, leading to a ton of long-side pain.

This time, everyone is out there reminding you that if you bought the up day you lost money 6 of 7 times. The past few bailouts, the consensus was you better get long, or else you were going to miss some sort of inflection point in the market.

So right now, logic tells me that everyone wants to get short this market. Too much empirical data not too. That could lead to some short term put pressure or general selling pressure in the very short run.

But that play-book is played out. Now we have Obama hanging a $500B plus package in front of us. We know its coming on Jan 20. We know it will probably end up being higher than that. And if you want to be short cyclicals/industrials/energy in front of that, you are going to look like a big idiot.

Touching on a theme I mentioned the other day with respect to moronic things I have heard (dollar strength and oil weakness are good..), I think the dollar will decline and oil will rip on the package. Demand and FX driven commodity rallies with the 10-year at a multi year low are recipes for a monster move.